How many lands should I run in an aggro MTG deck?

Aggro decks typically run 18-22 lands. The exact number depends on your curve peak and how many sub-2-mana plays you have. Paste your list into ManaTuner — inspect the land ratio and land-drop probabilities alongside the heuristic Health Score.

What is the hypergeometric distribution and why does it apply to MTG?

The hypergeometric distribution calculates the probability of drawing k successes from a finite deck without replacement. In MTG terms: given a 60-card deck with K colored sources, what is the probability of having ≥1 in your opening 7 plus draws? This draw distribution is exact. Default castability is an aggregate estimate; exact modes apply only to their stated supported resource and sequencing model.

How many sources do I need for a turn-2 double-colored spell like Counterspell?

Per Frank Karsten 2022, you need approximately 20 sources of that color in a 60-card deck to cast a UU spell on turn 2 with 90% reliability (including mulligans). ManaTuner compares your sources with scaled reference targets; its default castability estimate answers a different, no-mulligan question.

Does ManaTuner work for Commander decks?

Yes. The Atraxa example uses 99 library cards plus one explicitly marked commander and a T4–T8 priority horizon. Default castability is an estimate. Ramp and conditional lands have model-specific coverage; check the displayed limitations. ManaTuner does not validate deck legality.

How does ManaTuner handle hybrid mana like {R/G}?

Hybrid symbols are treated as "cast if you have either color". For accelerated castability, ManaTuner assigns the hybrid cost to the color with the most available sources in your deck. The display uses a bicolor split circle for clarity.

How to Use ManaTuner

Master your manabase analysis in 3 minutes

Quick Start

Paste your decklist → Click "Analyze Manabase" → Get your Health Score instantly. That's it!

Your Results

The 5 Analysis Tabs

1. Castability

Core Feature

Model-based castability by turn. The default is an estimate; exact modes state their supported scope. This is the first tab you see after analysis.

2. Mulligan

Unique

Smart keep/mull advice based on 10,000 simulated opening hands.

3. Analysis

Three sub-tabs under Analysis: Spells & Tempo (per-spell castability with tempo impact from tapped lands), Probabilities (mana curve chart, color distribution, land drop odds by turn), and Recommendations (prioritized fixes for your manabase). Health Score summarizes heuristic turn-two color access. Blueprint Stability also weighs land ratio and later color access; Mulligan measures opening-hand quality. These indices answer different questions, not win probability.

4. Manabase

Complete breakdown of your lands: basics, duals, fetches, utility.

📋

5. Blueprint

NEW

Export a saved analysis snapshot as PNG, PDF, JSON or CSV. Share it or archive your progress.

Getting Started

Step-by-Step Guide

Paste Your Deck

10 seconds

Copy your decklist from MTGO, MTGA, Moxfield, or any source and paste it in the text area. ManaTuner accepts any standard text format.

💡 Tip: Click "Try Example" to see a sample deck and understand the format.

Click "Analyze Manabase"

Instant

ManaTuner will automatically:

Detect all your lands and their colors
Including dual lands, fetches, and utility lands
Parse mana costs from Scryfall
Hybrid, Phyrexian, and colorless costs handled correctly
Calculate probabilities using hypergeometric formulas
Default estimates; exact modes show their limits

Read Your Results

Key Insight

Start with Castability — check the selected mode, target turn and cost for your key spells. Read the assumptions before interpreting a percentage.

Explore Mulligan Strategy - select your archetype and learn your keep thresholds under the selected heuristic score.

🎯 Pro Tip: A key spell below 85% is a prompt to investigate, not an automatic instruction to add colored sources. Check its cost, target turn, land count, sequencing and model limits, then compare a change with the same settings.

Under the Hood

The Math Behind ManaTuner

Built on rigorous mathematical foundations: probability theory, optimal stopping theory, and Monte Carlo methods.

P(X≥k)

Draw Math

Chance of drawing the required number of sources under the draw model

Hypergeometric distribution — exact draws under sampling without replacement; casting adds model assumptions

90%

Karsten Standards

How many sources you actually need per color

Pro-level targets: 14 sources for 1 pip T1, 20 for 2 pips T2, 23 for 3 pips T3

n=10k

Monte Carlo

10,000 opening hands shuffled and evaluated

Each hand scored on mana efficiency, curve, colors, early game, and land balance

E[V₇]

Smart Mulligan

Keep or mulligan thresholds for a heuristic score

Bellman equation: compare the hand score with the next redraw value, including any free multiplayer mulligan

0-100

Health Score

Heuristic average of turn-two access to each required color or hybrid group

85+ Excellent · 70–84 Good · 55–69 Average · below 55 Needs work

4×

Archetype Weights

Tailored scoring per deck type

Aggro: curve | Midrange: balance | Control: colors | Combo: pieces

Format Specific

Quick Tips by Format

Limited

16-18 lands

• 40-card deck

• 17 lands is default

Standard

24-26 lands

• Minimize taplands

• Curve peaks T3-T4

Pioneer

22-25 lands

• Shocks + checks

• Fast mana matters

Modern

19-23 lands

• Fetches essential

• T1-T3 critical

Legacy

18-22 lands

• Duals + fetches

• Every land untapped

Commander

36-38 lands

• 100-card singleton

• Color identity only

• Sol Ring + Signets

New in v2.5.6

Commander / EDH

Yes — ManaTuner works on 100-card Commander decks. Here's what the tool handles well, what it doesn't (yet), and the EDH-specific numbers to aim for.

✓ What works on EDH today

Hypergeometric math scales automatically to 100 cards — no hardcoded 60-card assumptions.
Singleton detection: duplicate basic lands are counted, everything else is expected to be unique.
Supported mana rocks are listed as non-land sources; detection does not imply support in every calculation mode.
Supported mana dorks can contribute to estimated effective sources; inspect the source breakdown.
Land-ramp coverage depends on the card and model. Check which producers are listed; opening-hand plans do not include ramp.
Conditional lands and fetches have model-specific restrictions. Exact results are unavailable when a mechanic is not represented.
Color identity: the deck list is analysed as-is; ManaTuner trusts your singleton + identity.

⚠ Known caveats (being worked on)

!
Command zone: identified only via *CMDR* or an explicit Commander section. Unmarked lists have no inferred commander. Castability pins it first; library size for other spells excludes commander copies (N−1 on a 100-card paste).
!
Karsten tables are published for 60-card decks. Manabase color targets are scaled by N/60 for 100-card lists (first-order approximation — not a published EDH table).
!
Castability priority horizon is T4–T8 in Commander mode (CMC 4–8 listed after the commander). Early rocks/dorks still appear below.
!
Multiplayer political variance (3 opponents, threat assessment, group hug) and Rule 0 are out of scope — this tool is strictly a manabase / castability lens.
!
Partners or Backgrounds must be entered on separate lines under Commander:. Their payment results are separate. Castability excludes mulligans and commander tax; the Mulligan tab can model the multiplayer free first mulligan and turn-one draw.

EDH manabase targets (rule of thumb)

LANDS

36–38

37 is the modal count on EDHREC

RAMP

10–12

Sol Ring + Signets + Cultivate-family

COLOUR FIXERS

10+

Triomes, shocks, fetches, checks

BASICS

≥8

Blood Moon + fetch targets

DRAW

8–10

Rhystic Study, Esper Sentinel, signets that cycle

MANA ROCKS TURN-1

1–2

Sol Ring is the single highest-impact card in the format

Frequently Asked Questions

What makes ManaTuner different?

ManaTuner combines hypergeometric draw calculations, Monte Carlo mulligan simulation (10,000 hands, configurable up to 50k), and Bellman equation for heuristic-score keep/mulligan thresholds across 4 deck archetypes.

What do Best Case and Realistic mean in Castability?

Mana estimates is the default mode. Within it, Perfect drops conditions on enough lands while Realistic includes land-draw uncertainty; selected ramp and removal assumptions apply. Exact goldfish potential is a separate supported model with foresight, no removal and full ramp survival. Neither mode includes mulligans or drawing the target spell.

Why is my castability below 90% even when I follow Karsten's recommendations?

Castability measures mana availability from random opening hands and draws through the target turn, without mulligans and assuming the target spell is available. It is not conditioned on your specific hand. Karsten’s published targets condition on enough lands after a specified London mulligan policy and target 89% plus mana value (91% for a two-mana spell). These are different events; see Mathematics for the model limits.

Can I export or share my analysis?

Yes! The Blueprint tab lets you export a saved analysis snapshot as PNG, PDF, JSON or CSV. It does not reproduce interactive Castability settings; shared links carry deck, name and tab only.

Is my deck data saved anywhere?

Calculations and saved analyses stay in your browser. Card lookups send card names or identifiers to Scryfall; images and fonts use external services. See the privacy policy for details.

Ready to Analyze?

Find out if your manabase can support your game plan