An Introduction to the Hypergeometric Distribution for Magic Players
Karsten explains the hypergeometric distribution applied to Magic decks — the math foundation behind land counts, colored sources, and probability tools like ManaTuner.
If the Karsten tables are the GPS, this article is the cartography course. Hypergeometric without unnecessary jargon — exactly ManaTuner's contract. Read it before you argue with a percentage on the Analyzer.
Original URL (likely dead): https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/an-introduction-to-the-hypergeometric-distribution-for-magic-players/
Share this piece
Related reading
How Many Sources Do You Need to Consistently Cast Your Spells? (2022 Update)
Frank Karsten · TCGPlayer Infinite · 2022The 2022 update of Karsten's canonical manabase tables. Adjusts for the London mulligan rule and modern format speeds. The working reference used by ManaTuner's engine.
How Many Colored Mana Sources Do You Need to Consistently Cast Your Spells?
Guilds of Ravnica Update (2018)
Frank Karsten · ChannelFireball · 2018The 2018 pre-London-mulligan version, preserved for historical and cross-reference value. Still cited when a deck hasn't migrated to the modern tables.
What's an Optimal Mana Curve and Land/Ramp Count for Commander?
Frank Karsten · ChannelFireball · 2019Karsten's adaptation of his manabase math to 100-card singleton Commander. Optimal curve, land count, and ramp targets — different formulas, same rigor as his Constructed work.